The events taking place in Donbass and in the western regions fit into several scenarios: «radical», «liberal» and «external».
Radical scenario
In the conditions of disintegration and weakness of the power, on the ground there is a great temptation to use the «right of force». Experts believe that the presidential team has not yet used all possible reserves to take control of the situation. However, the shootout at the checkpoint near Slavyansk was not accidental, it was a hint that, if necessary, they would go to the end.
‘Poroshenko can act as hard as possible. The police showed that they can use force and, if necessary, would shoot, while the «disobedient» MPs would be intimidated by criminal cases or there would be an agreement with them,’ said political scientist Vadim Karasev.
‘Now he must convince everyone that he will hold on to power until the end. So, Poroshenko will demonstrate strength, because he has no choice: if he shows weakness, he will instantly lose. But he has almost no support, neither on the ground nor on the central vertical. This was clearly demonstrated by the seizures of the regional administrations. Even Yanukovych had more opportunities to protect himself,’ agrees with his colleague the political scientist Ruslan Bortnik.
That's why experts believe that Poroshenko will demonstrate strength, but will not really do anything. In this case, he will get a powerful opposition consisting of the oligarchs and their spheres of influence.
‘Please note that everywhere where attempts were made to seize the regional administrations, the positions of the oligarchs, partners of the UKROP and «Samopomosch» (Self-Defense), are strong. Now imagine that this is happening all over the country,’ said the political analyst Alexey Yakubin.
‘The seizure of the regional administrations is a demonstration of strength: the center can easily lose control over the regions,’ stated the political strategist Andrey Zolotarev.
Liberal scenario
The second option is most typical for Peter Poroshenko, who is accustomed to react to stimuli at the last moment. It is, de facto, a reset of the «social contract» between the society and the authorities. The need for such a reset is long overdue, but the president refuses to recognize this, trying in every possible way to postpone the need for re-election of the Rada. However, any political cataclysm can destroy the delicate illusion of tranquility. This may be, for example, the end of the annual immunity of the government of Vladimir Groisman from the resignations (its deadline is April 14).
‘Elections are the only civilized way out of the crisis. Especially since we have been seeing the Rada's paralysis for a long time, which means that no one wants to take responsibility. Moreover, the president probably will not want to take a chance and break into a radical scenario which entails an uncontrollable struggle for power,’ said Zolotarev.
According to experts, even the decision of the NSDC (National Security and Defense Council) indicates the implementation of the «liberal» plan.
"This is an attempt to calm down the radical part of society, a decision that resonates with the topic of the blockade. They are trying to move the conflict to Kiev, to the parliament,’ said Yakubin.
According to Yakubin, this scenario will be started on April 14.
‘If the Rada does not perform the vote of confidence in the Cabinet, the Rada elections will become inevitable,’ he concluded.
External scenario
As the least likely, but still possible scenario, experts see the intervention of a third force. Political scientists believe that the political problems of Ukraine in many respects were caused by the transitional period of the administration of the US president.
‘For a long time, it was the external power that acted as a fuse which prevented our politicians from moving to an open confrontation. Nuland and Biden managed to find a balance between the teams. Only owing to this fact, the authorities did not repeat the mistakes of 2005 for almost two years,’ Zolotarev said.
‘But now there is no arbitrator in the world who could influence our situation. Manifestations of the external governance are possible only when a consensus is reached between Russia and the US; without this agreement, any intervention - European, Russian or American - is impossible, it only destabilizes,’ added political scientist Ruslan Bortnik.
The beginning of this plan will be indicated by radical steps in the «Ukrainian» conflict. For example, if Russia announces the recognition of the Republics of Donbass, or the United States will declare the refusal of the Minsk settlement format for the sake of working out new rules of the game. So far, there are no special prerequisites for talking about the implementation of the «third force».
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