By Bernard Lugan
One of consequences of Moscow’s intervention in Syria is the opening of the permanent access to the Mediterranean for the Russian Navy. The success of this policy, in which both tsars and the USSR suffered the fiasco, requires the provision of footholds.
Having ensured the support in Syria, in a situation when Egypt is increasingly seeking to get closer to Russia, Vladimir Putin is now looking towards Libya and the deep water port in Tobruk, in Cyrenaica. Therefore, he supports General Haftar.
However, the Russian president is more perspicacious. Supporting Morocco in the matter of Western Sahara, it is already preparing to enter the Atlantic Ocean. In response to this advancement, the Brussels «castrati» and «fellows» with the Orsay quay will have nothing to say. As for Algeria, it is paralyzed and thrown out of the game because of Polisario's support.
From the Crimea to Morocco, this Russian policy, which shuffles the cards of Mediterranean geopolitics, was carried out in seven steps, in less than three years.
Explanations and development
Stage 1: Accession of the Crimea to Russia
In February 2014, after returning the Crimea to Russia, Vladimir Putin established the foundations for a new Mediterranean policy of his country. Because of their historical illiteracy and ideological and analytical misconceptions, the Europeans did not understand the scale and significance of this event. The return of the Crimea to Russia, the transformation of Sevastopol into an impregnable fortress was, in fact, only a preparation for the Mediterranean plan.
Step 2: Save Syria
Having secured the rear in the Crimea, Russia proceeds to the second phase of its plan, that is, to strengthen the military bases in Tartus and Latakia, which is presented as the salvation of the regime of Damascus.
This goal was achieved in October 2015.
Stage 3: Real policy with Turkey
The mistake of Turkish pilots who shot down a Russian plane on November 27, 2015, allowed Vladimir Putin to intimidate President Erdogan so much that the latter understood that it was better to reach an understanding with his influential neighbor than to provoke him. Their American NATO allies supported the Kurdish separatists and harbored their deadly enemy, the oppositionist Gülen.
The result of these changes in the alliances was the resumption of cooperation between Moscow and Ankara, guaranteeing the free navigation of Russian warships in the straits. This finally weakens NATO's position.
Stage 4: Egypt turns away from the alliances
The necessary expansion of the Russian defense perimeter affects Egypt through the amazing rapprochement between General Al-Sisi and President Assad, which actually began in October 2016.
This is another significant success of the Russian diplomacy and a revolution in geopolitics, the result of which European observers were not able to assess in due measure. Egypt, economically dependent on Saudi Arabia, a bloody enemy of Syria allied with Moscow and Tehran, dared to oppose its patron on two key issues.
Despite the fact that Saudi Arabia is in a state of total war with President Asad, in the UN Security Council, Egypt supported Russia on the Syrian issue, followed by a bitter remark from the Saudi ambassador to the UN, ‘It is sad that the position of Senegal and Malaysia is closer to the Arab countries than the position of the representative of the Arab world in the Security Council’.
Egypt took this independent position after refusing to send its troops to resist the pro-Iranian husits in Yemen along with the troops of Saudi Arabia.
Can these changes in the Egyptian diplomacy violate the normalization of relations between Egypt and Iran? We will be able to see this in the coming months. Be that as it may, since at the same time, Moscow is trying to bring together the positions of Ankara and Tehran, the balance in the region may soon change again.
The outraged Saudi Arabia reacted to Egypt's move by stopping oil supplies to the country through gratuitous transactions or at reduced tariffs, and supporting the Ethiopian project on the construction of the «Renaissance Dam». Egypt regards this as a provocation, since this construction will entail a decrease in the water level in the Nile. Cairo said that this decision of Saudi Arabia was ‘a dangerous political demarche that could harm the interests of 92 million Egyptians’.
Finally, a very obvious sign of Moscow's return to Egypt in October 2016 was the participation of Russian paratroopers in the general military maneuvers with the Egyptian army in the western desert separating Egypt from Cyrenaica. That is, not far from the region controlled by General Haftar ...
Step 5: Support for General Haftar in Libya
Having faced the chaos in Libya, stubbornly unwilling to acknowledge the reality and reassuring themselves with a democratic paradigm, the UN and the EU created the illusion of restoring Libya around a phantom government of «national unity» supported by the Islamist associations and Salaphis of Tripolitania.
Against the background of this primitive policy, Russia developed a realistic plan, based on reliable data from the military and insurgent forces.
The development of this plan was completed by General Haftor's trip to Moscow on November 27-28, 2016, when President Putin officially recognized Russia’s providing support to the person with whom the EU diplomats refused to speak directly, denying the objectively existing reality with rare ideological persistence ...
General Haftar is very familiar with Cyrenaica and Tobruk, the only deep-water port between Alexandria and Mers-el-Kebir. He has the only army in the country. It controls 85% of Libya's oil reserves, 70% of gas reserves, five of the six oil storage facilities and four of the five oil refineries. The entire oil pie, of which 60% of Libyan oil is exported, is at its disposal.
In addition, he enjoys the support of the tribal community of Cyrenaica and the tribes that supported Gaddafi in Tripolitania.
The support from Russia offers Haftord three opportunities. 1) He can try to conquer the whole of Libya and destroy the numerous gangster-Islamist formations that are destroying the country. Such a policy can only be implemented if Misurata maintains neutrality. Since this city-state coordinates its steps with Turkey, we will be able to see whether the real-political agreements concluded between Moscow and Ankara will remain strong in Libya.
2) He can create an impregnable space only in Cyrenaica, which would be followed by the actual separation of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. This opportunity will open all the chances imaginable for the invaders of Tripolitania.
3) He can create a national government, in which he will become an authoritarian leader. This opportunity will be available only when the general destroys all armed groups, which brings us again to the opportunity number 1.
Stage 6: Algeria or Morocco?
Since all naval policy requires footholds, the Russian strategists developed the Algerian variant with a base in Mers-el-Kebir. Moreover, Moscow has a longstanding military relationship with Algeria, and the arsenal of the Algerian army largely consists of Russian weapons.
However, this opportunity was discarded for two reasons. The first is that in 2013, Algeria categorically refused to provide the Russian fleet with the ability to move and conduct operations. The second is the result of the analytical work of geostrategists. The Mediterranean Sea, like the Black Sea, is closed. To get from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, it is inevitable that you have to pass through the Turkish straits. In addition, to leave the Mediterranean Sea in order to enter the Atlantic Ocean, or to enter the former, it is necessary to provide free access through the sea corridor located between Gibraltar and the Cape Spartel.
Thus, Morocco is an ideal partner, as it controls the southern coast of Gibraltar. In addition, along with the Western Sahara, the country has a huge Atlantic coast stretching from Tangier in the north to the border with Mauritania in the south.
Step 7: Morocco's support
For Morocco, the issue of Western Sahara is not negotiable. On March 15, 2016, during the official visit of King Mohammed VI to Russia, the Kremlin confirmed that it ‘takes into account Morocco's position on the issue of Western Sahara’.
By this statement, Russia drew the line under more than half a century of relations with Algeria, the patron of Polisario, the movement for Saharan independence. Russia also spoke out against the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, who dared to call the Moroccan presence in the Sahara provinces ‘occupation’.
This statement by Russia significantly strengthens the position of Rabat, weakening the positions of Polisario and Algeria, and opens up Moroccan «opportunities» for the Russian fleet ...
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