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Panic in Kiev. Lights in the Cabinet all night. Ukraine dies, slowly

Economical opinion - 05.03.17 03:13


The introduction in the LDPR of the external control at former facilities of the Ukrainian oligarchs can pose a serious threat to the regime in Kiev, if the Republics are able to demonstrate a higher economic growth than in Ukraine, believes Vasily Volga, the leader of the «Union of Left Forces» and the former deputy of the Verkhovnaya Rada.

If this experiment fits into the system of international payments and budget forming enterprises of the DPR and LPR begin to work for the budgets of the Republics with a population of no more than 3 million people, their budget will double the budget of Kiev where almost 4 million people live. 

It may happen that these two small unrecognized republics, which are now experiencing enormous difficulties in the social sphere, will turn into something that can be compared to Catalonia in Spain. The DPR and LPR can break into the leaders in the GDP per capita. This will allow the authorities of these republics to maintain such a level of social security, which Ukraine has never dreamed of.

Yesterday, there was a real panic in Kiev. The Cabinet window were lit all night. There is one meeting after another there, and no one knows what to do with all this. It turns out that in the case of a real blockade, Ukraine is unable to survive not only without Russia, but even without Donetsk and Lugansk. 

God forbid, there will be interruptions in the single energy complex. We have very high risks for operating NPPs. In addition, last year the DPR and LPR paid 34 billion USD, if I'm not mistaken, to the Ukrainian budget. The loss of such a sum is an enormous loss for Ukraine, especially when we have almost lost the right to the international credit. Moreover, we are still burdened with the court decision on payment of the so-called Yanukovych’s debt.

We are now witnessing interesting things. States do not die immediately - bang and they have collapsed - they die gradually. Of course, in historical retrospect, it occurs instantly. A few years for the state is a moment for the man. But the death within several years, it is what we are observing now. 

I have recently had an opportunity to travel in Ukraine - the collapse of the transport infrastructure is reaching a peak. The majority of Ukrainian roads are not just worn out, they simply do not exist. The same thing is happening in the energy sector. Scheduled maintenance has not been conducted for three years, and such scheduled preventive maintenance is required on a quarterly basis.

Of course, we will live somehow. People lived somehow in the primitive communal system, they survived on gathering, dug up and ate roots. But our problem is that we live in the area saturated with high-tech facilities. If they are not maintained, if the state does not have the funds for it and the energy sector does not have enough power, we may end up not with gathering, but with rolling man-made disasters which will follow rolling blackouts. 

In Ukraine, they talk about the stabilization, but it is a stabilization when, say, they have reached the bottom and, all of a sudden, there is a knock from beneath - I mean the LDPR blockade.